The power of (green) travel superhubs
Our P-THREE study tour to Paris earlier this year was delayed more than once due to the civil unrest in the French capital. The discord – largely a result of the Macron government’s pension reforms, now signed into law – distracted attention from another potentially controversial piece of legislation that was enacted around the same time.
Despite the initial suppression of commuting by Covid, London’s Crossrail (Elizabeth Line), which opened throughout last year, has already beaten post-pandemic forecast usage figures. And, as a result, the expected uptick in commercial property values surrounding central London Crossrail stations, continues.
A new law effectively amounts to a ban on domestic short-haul flights, where a high speed rail alternative exists. But there are plenty of caveats, which might explain why the gilets jaune (yellow vests – as the more radical French protestors are known) weren’t attaching themselves to the runways at Orly and Charles de Gaulle airports.
The law only applies to scheduled flights of less than 2.5 hours (down from initial proposals for 6 hours) and the rail alternative must allow eight hours in the chosen destination. Oh, and the domestic rule means that flights from abroad aren’t included – so MAPIC/MIPIM regulars on the London to Nice route won’t be troubled by this (though we have actually taken the train several times).
In practice, only three routes in France have been affected by the new law, resulting in a reduction of just 0.03% of French aviation CO2 emissions. Although the fallout has been relatively small, I wondered whether the UK might follow suit.
Other European countries, notably Germany, Austria and Spain, have considered similar measures, but none are currently proposing similar laws. And there seems to be very little political will in the UK to pursue such a ban. (In any case, the most popular route – London to Edinburgh – is unlikely to see a high speed rail alternative any time soon.)
Globally, though, a high speed rail revolution is unfolding, with Japan, China and India all building significant networks. In Japan, which opened its first ‘bullet rain’ route nearly 60 years ago, there has been a fundamental shift in traveller sentiment, with trains now the preferred choice over planes. And in Europe, the busy Spanish transport artery of Madrid-Barcelona has seen a massive modal shift, with high speed rail now accounting for 80% of journeys, almost reversing the situation when the line opened in 2008.
What I find particularly interesting is the Polish proposal to create a new central airport (known as CPK for short) on a greenfield site between Warsaw and Lodz. Although this appears to fly (quite literally) in the face of the French aviation ban, what is actually being created (and due to become operational in 2028) is a transport superhub.
The project also includes the construction of high speed rail lines radiating from the airport, so that all Polish cities will be within a 2.5 hour rail trip radius. With 134 million rail passengers and 40 million air passengers expected through the hub, the potential for commercial property development is significant.
While the CPK project may be exceptional, the gravitation of travellers toward public transport served hubs certainly isn’t – and in fact is only likely to increase. Despite the initial suppression of commuting by Covid, London’s Crossrail (Elizabeth Line), which opened throughout last year, has already beaten post-pandemic forecast usage figures. And, as a result, the expected uptick in commercial property values surrounding central London Crossrail stations, continues, with average central London office rents jumping by nearly 50% over the last decade or so.
As working patterns shift in the aftermath of Covid, it seems clear to me that a concentration around transport hubs can only lead to greater opportunities, in particular for retail and leisure developers, investors and operators. The construction of HS2 will bring new property development to London locations, including Lendlease’s over-station scheme at Euston and the Mayoral Development Corporation’s land at Old Oak Common and Park Royal. I think these new generation transport superhubs could be very different from the dull and utilitarian interchanges of yesteryear. With a dash of vision and inspiration, they might even, dare I say it, be seen as exciting!
Article by Justin Taylor, Co-founder P-THREE
Photo credits: Unsplash
